To Replace Saudi Arabia on UN Security Council, Jordan As Gulf Moves in Lockstep, Human Rights Council Deal Only to Save Face

By Matthew Russell Lee, Exclusive

UNITED NATIONS, November 7 -- After Saudi Arabia turned up its nose at the UN Security Council seat it without competition won on October 17, Kuwait was identified as a likely replacement. 

  But now Inner City Press has multiply confirmed that Jordan's Permanent Representative to the UN Prince Zeid Ra'ad Zeid Al-Hussein is flying back to Amman to help hammer out the details of Jordan taking the seat. (Inner City Press named Jordan as the replacement back on October 25.)

   Why Jordan?

  While other have not reported it, instead laughably tying it to some deal of Jordan dropping out of the race against Saudi Arabia for a significantly less valuable UN Human Rights Council seat, the reasoning is the Saudi Arabia is the king, literally, of the Gulf.

  If Saudi says no to the Security Council, well placed sources exclusively tell Inner City Press, so must Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. They stand together against Assad of Syria, the logic goes.

  The Human Rights Council to Security Council seat deal mentioned by other media is just a way for Saudi Arabia to try to save face, sources tell Inner City Press.

  Now Jordan has to receive assurances of enough staffing and resources for the Security Council seat. This should be finalized by this weekend, sources tell Inner City Press.

  Longer form analysis of Saudi Arabia's move by this author is available on Beacon Reader, here.

On another note, Inner City Press was impressed by Prince Zeid's position not only on sexual abuse by UN peacekeepers, but also on Sri Lanka military figure Shavendra Silva being on the UN's Senior Advisory Group on Peacekeeping Operations.

While other Permanent Representatives from South Asia who initially told Inner City Press they were opposed to Silva's participation later under pressure recanted, Zeid never did. But the policies, at least in the Security Council, would be coming from Amman. Watch this site.

   

At UN, Ban's Travails Trigger Candidacy Tales, De Mistura, Zeid, Kubis, Kerim or even Bachelet or Bill Clinton, Game On

By Matthew Russell Lee

UNITED NATIONS, August 9 -- Alternate candidates to Ban Ki-moon are emerging before the next UN Secretary General term begins on January 1, 2012. Tellingly, even people given UN posts by Ban Ki-moon are among reported candidates.

Ban named Staffan de Mistura as his representative in Afghanistan, after de Mistura hired Ban's son in law Siddarth Chatterjee as his chief of staff with the UN in Iraq. (Ban's son in law has since been hired by Jan Mattsson as a high official of the UN Office of Project Services in Copenhagen).

But, people recruited to work for the UN in Afghanistan tell Inner City Press, de Mistura harbors the dream of swooping in as a dark horse candidate to replace Ban in late 2011.

There is “blood in the water,” these sources say, particularly following the damning End of Assignment report of Inga Britt Ahlenius. Ban's “melt down” then retraction on August 9 about job promises made in the course of replacing Ahlenius won't help either.

The problem for de Mistura and other non-Asian contenders is that the S-G position is said to belong to a regional group for at least 10 years.

When the U.S. vetoed Egypt's Boutros Boutros Ghali in 2005, the post next went to another African. So it would be with Ban, the assumption goes, with China demanding equal treatment for Asia.

But, as Inner City Press reported some time ago, even Team Ban has a theory that the U.S. might trade its de facto ownership of the top World Bank post to China in exchange for the right to replace Ban with a S-G of its choice.

De Mistura, having served as U.S. ground cover and fig leaf in Iraq and then Afghanistan, feels he would have U.S. support. A long shot candidate mentioned is Bill Clinton. Others point to Jose Ramos Horta of Timor Leste, in the Asian group like another candidate, Zeid Bin Ra'ad of Jordan.

Lula of Brazil would appear to have lost U.S. support, given his country's vote against the recent sanctions on Iran. Shashi Tharoor appears to have shot himself in the foot with Cricket-gate.

More savvy, some say, is Michelle Bachelet. She is understood to have not leapt at the offer of the top UN Women post. Does this mean that, like with the UNICEF post given to Tony Lake, she is shooting higher? From those heights, at UNDP, Helen Clark is often mentioned.

There are other plotters. Some point to the alliance between Ms. Ahlenius and Alicia Barcena, who left the top UN Management post when Ban came in and went to ECLAC in Santiago, Chile. She was in New York and dined with Ahlenius shortly before Ahlenius leaked her memo. Also involved, sources say, was Barcena's Management predecessor Christopher Burnham.

Next in line, they argue, are the Eastern European states. From 2006, there is Vaira Vike-Freiberga. Jan Kubis is mentioned (Ban gave him a temporary post during the violence in Kyrgyzstan), along with former General Assembly president Srgjan Kerim, to whom Ban gave a Special Envoy on Climate Change UN post. Do you see a pattern here?

“There are candidates galore, and there is blood in the water,” as one source puts it. Let the games begin.

This all comes, as Inner City Press first reported, against the backdrop of ad hoc meetings to “revitalize the General Assembly” which are discussing requiring Ban Ki-moon to come before the GA to seek his second term, and not only the Security Council.

Specifically, under the heading “Selection of the Secretary General,” the draft “takes note of the views expressed at the Ad Hoc Working Group at the 64th session and bearing in mind the provisions of Article 97 of the Charter, emphasizes the need for the process of selection of the Secretary General to be inclusive of all Member States and to be made more transparent.. including through presentation of candidates for the position of the Secretary General in an informal plenary of the General Assembly.”

Interestingly, the marked up draft of this pending paragraph reads as follows:

“10. Affirms its commitment to continuing its consideration of the revitalization of the General Assembly's role in the selection and appointment of the Secretary General, including through (encouraging (Algeria / NAM: delete and add 'the') Russian Federation: retain) presentation of candidates for the position of Secretary General in an informal plenary of the General Assembly before the Security Council considers the matter (Russian Federation); Russian Federation: bracket entire para.”

10 Alt. Also encourages formal presentation of candidatures for the position of the Secretary General in a manner than allows sufficient time for interaction with member states, and requests candidates to present their views to all Member States of the General Assembly (Belgium / EU, US & Russia) (Algeria / NAM supports Islamic Republic of Iran proposal of retaining as OP 10 bis).”

In the Security Council, placating or giving patronage to the five Permanent Members would be enough to gain the second term. But if the GA and regional grouping get involved, Ban's snubs like that of Africa for the deputy post in the UN Development Program, and the devaluation of the Office of the Special Adviser on Africa, could come back to haunt Ban, along with his more recent appointment of Alvaro Uribe to his Gaza flotilla panel, over the objections of Venezuela which wil head the Group of 77 and China. Watch this site.