Tuesday, January 11, 2011

IMF Postpones Kosovo & Pakistan, Waiting for Stronger Governments, Dodges on Sudan But Answers on Tunisia

By Matthew Russell Lee

UNITED NATIONS, January 6, updated -- Questions of Pakistan and Kosovo and the International Monetary Fund's longing for strong governments arose at the IMF's fortnightly media briefing on Thursday. Inner City Press asked, and IMF spokesperson Caroline Atkinson read out with a cautionary note, the following on Pakistan:

On Pakistan, what is the IMF's thinking after the assassination of Punjab's governor, as the government loses power -- [here Ms Atkinson added, “those are Matthew's words”] -- is it realistic to think the IMF's conditions will be met?”

In response, she said Pakistan has been given nine additional months. But what will be different then?

Later in the briefing, Ms. Aktinson read out the rare Balkan question, also from Inner City Press:

On Kosovo, what are the IMF's views on Mr. Thaci's proposal to double public sector salaries, and on the Council of Europe's allegations this once and seeming future PM was involved in organ trafficking?”

How ever distasteful the organ reference may have been to Ms. Atkinson, she replied that “we have, as Matthew may know, an eighteen month” program with Kosovo, the December consideration of which has been postponed.

A link between these two may be that while the IMF does impose conditions on its loans, it prefers to say that governments, particularly legislatures, have approved or even chosen between the choices presented by the IMF. This legitimates the IMF, and also may help in collecting the money down the road.

Kosovo is in political turmoil, and Pakistan no longer even controls large swaths of its territory -- nor, apparently more importantly to the IMF, its political space.

Submitted but not acknowledge during the briefing by Ms. Atkinson was this question, about Tunisia:

On Tunisia, given the IMF's role and statements, what can IMF say about the unrest that has followed the death of protester Mohamed Bouazizi and others?”

We will await the IMF's acknowledgment and answer of this question, and a more detailed response on Sudan and the IMF's role in the debt issues, on which the UN has said “the Bretton Woods institutions are taking the lead.” Watch this site.

Update of 1 pm - Two hours after deadline, the following arrived, with the notation that it should be attributed to an IMF spokesperson:

We deeply regret the recent surge of violence in Tunisia. The IMF remains engaged with the Tunisian authorities and follows the developments closely. Unemployment in Tunisia has declined slightly in the last decade, but remains high, especially among the young. In this context, IMF staff continues to encourage the authorities to pursue structural reforms critical to achieve higher growth, enhance competitiveness and address the problem of persistent high unemployment. Such reforms include measures to increase productivity by improving the business environment, reforming labor market policy, increasing capital investment, and modernizing and strengthening the financial sector.”

We'll have more on this.