After Egypt & UK Predicted 70 Votes, Saudi Dumped Sanctions & Assad Leaving

By Matthew Russell Lee, Partial exclusive

UNITED NATIONS, August 2 -- In the wake of Kofi Annan quitting as Syria envoy, more detail on how and why the Saudi Arabia drafted General Assembly resolution was amended has emerged. 

  Multiple sources tell Inner City Press that after Saudi Arabia on July 31 presented a draft General Assembly resolution on Syria urging sanctions and Bashar al Assad to step down, it was pressured by among others Egypt, the UK and France to drop those elements to gain a higher vote count.

  Not only the opposition by BRICSA -- Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa -- on which Inner City Press first reported was determinative: the position of, for example, Argentina carried weight. 

  If even the Argentines oppose it, an involved source told Inner City Press, we had to change it.

 And so not only a major Western country, but also Egypt, told Saudi Arabia they might get only 70 votes for their draft.  One particpant actually thought 85 to 90 votes were possible. But "moving" Saudi Arabia was the key. And Saudi moved.

   Most interesting, the sources tell Inner City Press, was the position of the United States. Unlike the UK and France, the US was not pushing as hard to take out the references to sanctions and Assad stepping down. It was speculated, as one sources put it, that this was because "what if the Romney camp found out the US wanted these out?"

  The prospect of US support for keeping these elements in made Saudi Arabia take longer to agree to make the amendments, but finally they did.  Now, the proponent sources told Inner City Press they predict a vote count of 110, while internally hoping for 125.

  But, as French Ambassador Gerard Araud told the press midday on Thursday, August is a month of vacations with many absences in the General Assembly. 

  The philosophic underpinning of the opposition is not only that the General Assembly shouldn't be asked to call for "regime change" in a country among the early founders of the UN.

  Also, Saudi Arabia was told, unilateral sanctions like those of the Arab League are not celebrated by many in the General Assembly.  And so both provisions were dropped.

   The new draft, which Inner City Press obtained from a well placed member state after 5 pm on August 1, is now set for voting August 3 at 11 am. Inner City Press is putting the draft online here.

 Most contentious in the previous draft, opponents said, was the last perambular paragraph

"welcoming the relevant League of Arab States’ decisions, including its 22 July 2012 resolution, in particular its appeal to the Syrian President to step down from power."

  Now that language is gone. An opponent late Wednesday exclusive also told Inner City Press, they're afraid of us. They'd also pointed to operative paragraphs 20 and 21, which called on countries to adopt sanctions like the Arab League. That too is gone.

  For now still in however is Paragraph 20, which a non-BRICSA diplomat told Inner City Press, is "disrespectful" to Kofi Annan, directing him to "focus his efforts."

  With Kofi having quit, will that paragraph change? Watch this site.

On Syria, Saudi Draft Drops Sanctions & Assad Stepping Down, for Friday Vote

By Matthew Russell Lee, Partial exclusive

UNITED NATIONS, August 1 -- The day after Saudi Arabia presented a draft General Assembly resolution on Syria urging sanctions and Bashar al Assad to step down, a new draft dropped both, and the vote was pushed back one day.

   The new draft, which Inner City Press obtained from a well placed member state after 5 pm on August 1, is now set for voting August 3 at 11 am. Inner City Press is putting the draft online here.

  Most contentious in the previous draft, opponents said, was the last perambular paragraph

"welcoming the relevant League of Arab States’ decisions, including its 22 July 2012 resolution, in particular its appeal to the Syrian President to step down from power."

  Now that language is gone. An opponent late Wednesday exclusive also told Inner City Press, they're afraid of us. They'd also pointed to operative paragraphs 20 and 21, which called on countries to adopt sanctions like the Arab League. That too is gone.

   Saudi Arabia has been opposed on sanctions and "regime change" by, among others, BRICSA -- Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa -- and some Latin American countries.

  Still in however is Paragraph 20, which a non-BRICSA diplomat told Inner City Press, is "disrespectful" to Kofi Annan, directing him to "focus his efforts."

One BRICSA representative after Tuesday meeting said that Saudi Arabia put these in so as to negotiate. It looks like they were right.

   But since Saudi Arabia, like Qatar, is already giving weapons to the opposition, adopting a resolution even like this could be seen to provide a further pretext.

  The amendments come after Saudi Arabia at 10, 11 and 12 on August 1 held scheduled briefings for the Western European and Others States Group, the Asia Pacific Group, and the Group of Latin American and Caribbean States.

  This stood in contrast to the African Group, which on July 31 received a briefing from Syrian Permanent Representative Bashar Ja'afari.

   After Inner City Press mentioned this meeting in its July 31 analysis the Saudi resolution, it was told that Egypt too addressed the African Group, and added it to the piece. 

  Then a participant noted that Egypt just spoke as a member; only Syria can a briefing. But why was the format for the other groups so different?  Watch this site.

On Syria, Saudi Draft Refers to Assad Stepping Down, "Take It Or Leave It"

By Matthew Russell Lee

UNITED NATIONS, July 31 -- While Saudi Arabia described the Syria meeting it convened on Tuesday as "consultations" on its draft General Assembly resolution, several meeting participants complained inside, and outside to Inner City Press, that the Saudi position was "take it or leave it."

This was met by opposition by BRICSA -- Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa -- some Latin American countries and others.

Even one self described Western Diplomat told Inner City Press on the way out that if unchanged, "they'll be lucky to get 70 votes" in favor. Another close Western Permanent Representative predicted 100, down from the previously 137.

Most contentious, opponents said, was the switch in the last perambular paragraph to "welcoming" rather than "noting" the Arab League call for Assad to go:

"welcoming the relevant League of Arab States’ decisions, including its 22 July 2012 resolution, in particular its appeal to the Syrian President to step down from power."

  They also pointed to operative paragraphs 20 and 21. Inner City Press is putting the referenced draft resolution online again, here.

  Paragraph 20, a non-BRICSA diplomat told Inner City Press, is "disrespectful" to Kofi Annan, directing him to "focus his efforts." Paragraph 21 calls on countries to adopt sanctions like the Arab League.

One BRICSA representative after the meeting said that Saudi Arabia put these in so as to negotiate. But others say no, Saudi Arabia isn't trying to win more votes, but a stronger message if not action. The General Assembly can't authorize military force. 

  But since Saudi Arabia, like Qatar, is already giving weapons to the opposition, adopting a resolution like this could provide a further pretext. Watch this site.

Update: in a parallel universe, Syria went and met with the African Group on Tuesday afternoon, during Saudi Arabia's "consultations." Game on, as they say.

Update II: it is pointed out that not only Syria, but also Egypt, went to brief (or pitch) the African Group. More on these meetings to follow.