As Jordan Mulls Closing Syria Border, UNHCR Says "Bad Idea," Srebrenica Cite

By Matthew Russell Lee

UNITED NATIONS, January 17 -- After Jordan's prime minster Abdullah Ensour said that his country will close its border with Syria when (or really, if) Bashar al Assad falls, Inner City Press asked the UN Refugee Agency's regional coordinator Panos Moumtzis if UNHCR thinks this is a good idea.

  No, Moumtzis told Inner City Press, it is a bad idea, we've not had a positive experience with safe havens. He cited Srebrenica, saying the UN is "not proud."

  But, Inner City Press asked Moumtzis, will UNHCR convey this experience and advice to Jordan?

  "We have a good relationship with Jordan," Moumtzis answered. He went on to say that the countries hosting refugees are wondering if they are being "taken for granted."

  It seems UNHCR is already walking on eggshells with Jordan, or estimating their costs at double that of Lebanon, per refugee. The reason, Moumtzis said in another answer, is that Jordan decreed that all refugees must be in camps, in part to prevent "radicalization."

  Moumtzis also described five hospitals right next to each other in Zaatari camp in Jordan, built by and to show the beneficence of, among others, Morocco, France and Jordan itself. Five hospitals there but few elsewhere; few other services in the camp.

  As to Iraq, Moumtzis said most of those coming in from Syria are Kurds. One of Iraq's border crossings has been closed. Moumtzis described the delicate ethnic and religious politics.

  Inner City Press wanted to ask about the reported policy of NOT letting Sunni refugees in Turkey's Hatay region, with its Alawite population. But the event, one in a new "brown bag" series by the UN Department of Public Information, was strangely run when it came to questions, as was the first in the series with outgoing Security chief Gregory Starr.

  The series is one welcome reform by DPI. But will there be more, from those already raised? Watch this site.

Footnote: Panos Moumtzis mentioned UNRWA, where he previously worked. He's also served as humanitarian coordinator in Libya, as (speaking of Srebrenica and UN failures) in Rwanda. 

  His candor was appreciated, and his dedication as reflected (or recounted) by a recent 2 am visit to a camp. So much so one wanted to ask his views on the treatment of refugees and immigrants in his native Greece. He is "doing the circuit" in New York, including the International Peace Institute if only via webcast. We'll see.

UN Cites Danger to Alawites, But Urges Them Not to Move, No Protection Offered

By Matthew Russell Lee

UNITED NATIONS, December 21 -- The UN is "deeply concerned" that in Syria the Alawite minority, "perceived to be affiliated with the Government... could be subject to large scale reprisal attacks." 

  The UN's adviser on the Prevention of Genocide Adama Dieng in December 20 issued a press release, and on Friday took questions from journalists at the UN in New York.

   Inner City Press asked Dieng what the UN would think and more importantly do if Alawites began to relocate to mountain areas they could defend. Dieng replied that would be a bad thing, that separation is not good.

   So Inner City Press asked if the UN, whose Department of Peacekeeping Operations has said it is involved in contingency planning for a possible deployment in Syria, has been planning how to protect minority groups, including the Kurds. 

  There was no real answer to that, except Dieng saying that deploying a peacekeeping mission is up to the Security Council.

   Yes, but the Secretary General -- and in this case his head of peacekeeping Herve Ladsous -- make proposals to the Security Council of what they think should and can be done. 

   So are they preparing a plan to protect Alawite, to take to the Security Council if and when it become necessary? Apparently not.

   Dieng mentioned the Responsibility to Protect, the office for which at the UN has been headless since Edward Luck left. Inner City Press asked if Luck will be replaced, and what Dieng makes of questioning of the R2P mandate, now in the UN's Fifth (Budget) Committee, by countries including Cuba.

Dieng said that Luck will be replaced, by another adviser on a dollar a year contract. He questioned why Cuba would have a problem with this. It was moving without General Assembly approval. 

  This UN bends the rules to push through words, but claims powerlessness when it comes to actually offering protection.

Footnote: Inner City Press thanked Dieng for the briefing, the type that the Free UN Coalition for Access has been pushing for from all Under Secretaries General including the UN's top lawyer Patricia O'Brien, and suggested that he do one on the Eastern Congo.

  Dieng was previously the registrar at the International Criminal Tribunal on Rwanda, in which post Inner City Press mentioned him as a candidate to take the top post in the Department of General Assembly and Conference Management. 

   He didn't get that USG post, but rather the one on genocide. Syria is a start -- but he should speak on more country situation, including for example the Tamils in Sri Lanka on which the UN is now on its third report. Watch this site.

On Syria, Beyond Brahimi An Alawite Army, UN Budget & De Mistura

By Matthew Russell Lee, Exclusive, Analysis

UNITED NATIONS, August 16 -- Amid competing accounts of if Lakhdar Brahimi has or has not already accepted to replace Kofi Annan as Syria envoy, the questions is, why would he?

  Well placed sources told Inner City Press late Thursday Brahimi is still undecided. He has been told that a fast solution is unlikely, having been told of the high percentage of army officers who are Alawite, for example.

 The defectors leave as individuals, without the thousands of soldiers similar defectors took with them for example in Yemen.

  So who WANTS there to be a replacement for Kofi Annnan? As Inner City Press has already reported, Ban Ki-moon, in order to stay relevant. 

  More than that, appointing a high(er) profile envoy makes them the lightening rod for failure, not him.

  Inner City Press' Thursday stakeout and noon briefing question, who pays for the mission, has since been answered off the record: it will begin as "unforeseen expenses," a/k/a the slush fund, and then be a special political mission. This may raise Fifth (Budget) Committee issues about backstopping and the different scales of assessment for SPMs and peacekeeping missions.

Meanwhile promoting himself to replace Kofi Annan is the hybrid Italian Swede Staffan de Mistura, who STILL dreams of being the next Secretary General. While some think the next turn is for Eastern Europe -- can you say, Srgjan Kerim? -- the counter argument is that most of these state are now members of the EU. Scandanavia wants another shot, and de Mistura plays up that he is half Swedish, half Italian.

Regarding Brahimi, Annan's deputy Mark Malloch Brown wrote in his book "The Unfinished Global Revolution" that Annan

"sent his senior adviser on Muslim and Middle East matter, Lakhdar Brahimi, to Iraq to build bridges.. The Bush administration made selective use of Brahimi's help, jeopardizing what was left of our neutrality." (Page 164-165).

  Other sources tell Inner City Press that MMB resented Brahimi, who never took MMB seriously. And so it goes at the UN. Watch this site.

On Syria, Insider Spins ICP on Division Into 3, Alawites by Coast for Russian Port

By Matthew Russell Lee

UNITED NATIONS, July 11, updated -- After a full day of Syria action at the UN Security Council, a non Council member offered a cynic's explanation for it to Inner City Press on Wednesday night.

  "They aim to divide Syria into three," the diplomat told Inner City Press, "with the Alawites controlling a small strip by the coast, so Russia can have a port. The Kurds will get their piece, and of course the Sunnis. It will be federalism, it will all be constructive ambiguity like in Iraq. But it will happen."

  Inner City Press asked the diplomat if as expected given his position he agreed with Qatar arming the Syrian opposition. "Of course not," he said, "it's destructive. But who is going to stop them?"

  The reason, he said, for the West's cautious approach on Syria is that simply removing Assad without having a successor ready would put Israel's border at risk. "And no one has emerged," he continued. 

  "The best model is Yemen, with the technical step down of Ali Saleh, no ICC, and he can return later. That's what's needed here."

  Another UN source protested that "Assad has killed too many," that he must go to the Hague. 

  The main source and cynic laughed. "You are being idealistic, that's not how these things work. They are arranged among the P-5, and they happen. And until World World Three, the Security Council will not be reformed." 

  While this last may be true, Inner City Press pointed out that the cynic's theory had a number of problems, not least the massive ethnic cleansing required and even in one view underway, with backing from the Gulf.

   But the cynic like the debate had moved on. Watch this site.