By Matthew Russell Lee
UNITED NATIONS, July 11, updated -- After a full day of Syria action at the UN Security Council, a non Council member offered a cynic's explanation for it to Inner City Press on Wednesday night.
"They aim to divide Syria into three," the diplomat told Inner City Press, "with the Alawites controlling a small strip by the coast, so Russia can have a port. The Kurds will get their piece, and of course the Sunnis. It will be federalism, it will all be constructive ambiguity like in Iraq. But it will happen."
Inner City Press asked the diplomat if as expected given his position he agreed with Qatar arming the Syrian opposition. "Of course not," he said, "it's destructive. But who is going to stop them?"
The reason, he said, for the West's cautious approach on Syria is that simply removing Assad without having a successor ready would put Israel's border at risk. "And no one has emerged," he continued.
"The best model is Yemen, with the technical step down of Ali Saleh, no ICC, and he can return later. That's what's needed here."
Another UN source protested that "Assad has killed too many," that he must go to the Hague.
The main source and cynic laughed. "You are being idealistic, that's not how these things work. They are arranged among the P-5, and they happen. And until World World Three, the Security Council will not be reformed."
While this last may be true, Inner City Press pointed out that the cynic's theory had a number of problems, not least the massive ethnic cleansing required and even in one view underway, with backing from the Gulf.
But the cynic like the debate had moved on. Watch this site.
