By Matthew Russell Lee
UNITED NATIONS, May 17 – The International Monetary Fund offered some praise and support to Somalia on May 15, after conducting a visit not to the country but to next door Kenya. On May 17 for the IMF's embargoed media briefing, Inner City Press asked among other things, "In Somalia, the Central Bank says it has requested from the IMF an Assessment Letter needed in order to issue a new currency. Please describe the process, and status. And, IMF gives go-ahead to source $41m to issue new bank notes, but how can printing of counterfeit notes be stopped before this time?"
IMF Spokesperson Gerry Rice read out the question then said Somalia debt relief is a priority for the IMF, that all preparatory steps for the new currency have been taken, with the first step being replacing the counterfeit shillings. But what if new counterfeit is created in the meantime? Rice said the IMF would revert bilatally; Inner City Press also asked about price rises of the metro in Egypt, and of fuel in Sri Lanka. The latter, Rice defended as an attempt to eliminate subsidies that benefit the rich and not the poor - like the reported 130% rise in the price of kerosene? Most of the May 17 briefing was devoted to Argentina, on which the IMF Executive Board has a May 18 informal meeting on what Rice called Macri's request for a "high access stand by arrangement." Watch this site. On Somalia the IMF on May 15 said, "An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team, led by Mohamad Elhage, visited Nairobi, Kenya, from May 7—14, to conduct discussions on the second review of the second Staff-Monitored Program (SMP II) and to agree on SMP III. The team met with the Somali authorities to discuss recent economic developments, review progress on the implementation of reforms under SMP II, and discuss a follow-up SMP to consolidate reforms. At the conclusion of the visit, Mr. Elhage issued the following statement: 'The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) successfully completed the third Article IV Consultations with the IMF and first review under its second SMP (SMP II) in February 2018... Performance under SMP II was satisfactory. However, despite the important reforms implemented since the first SMP I (May 2016-April 2017), significant challenges remain. Growth is too low to make a significant dent in Somalia’s widespread poverty, high youth unemployment, and large social needs. The economy is vulnerable to shocks and lacks buffers needed to develop resilience. The external public debt is high, and there is no capacity to service public debt obligations. Without proper compliance with the AML/CFT international standards, Somalia will continue to suffer from pressures related to the reduction in correspondent banking relationships. This could result in lower and volatile remittances inflows, which are Somalia’s lifeline. SMP III will help maintain reform the momentum and macroeconomic stability. It will also continue to support the authorities’ broad reform agenda. In particular, it will focus on (1) enhancing public financial management and revenue mobilization; (2) completing Phase I of the currency reform, which consists of exchanging all Somali Shilling currently in circulation with a new national currency; (3) putting the foundation of financial sector reforms to foster financial development, inclusion, and stability, while strengthening compliance with the anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); and (4) improving data reporting. Strengthening the procurement framework and improving governance and transparency are important features of SMP III, which will be support by technical assistance from the IMF... During the visit, the team met with Finance Minister, Mr. Abdirahman Duale Beileh; the Minister of Fisheries and Marine Resources, Mr. Abdirahman M. Abdi Hashi; Central Bank Governor, Mr. Bashir Issa Ali; Assistant to the President and Special Advisor, Hussein A. Gendisch; Representative of the Prime Minister’s office, Mr. Abdi Abdullahi; and other officials. The team also met representatives from development partners." Who might that be? By contrast when the IMF reviews developed countries' banking sectors, particularly in Europe, some banks' participation in predatory lending gets over looked. Consider Deutsche Bank, and today's IMF assessment of the Germany banking sector, just out from under embargo as of this publication: "The German banking and life insurance sectors should accelerate their restructuring to bolster profitability and reduce risks. In the banking sector, the regulatory capital ratio has increased, but the cost-to-income ratio and leverage remain high. The high cost structure, alongside low net interest margins, provisions for compliance violations, and the need to adjust to the new regulatory environment, continue to weigh on profitability. Restructuring is ongoing in the banking sector, but the process must be accelerated through faster implementation of restructuring plans, continued development of fee-based income, and further consolidation. In the life insurance sector, low interest rates have dented solvency ratios, and further progress is needed to reduce reliance on guaranteed return products. In this context, supervisory attention to interest rate risk and progress in implementing restructuring plans both in banking and insurance should continue." What about abuse of consumers, participation in predatory lending schemes and other abuses? What about Greece? What about Deutsche bank as the riskiest bank? The IMF announced a press conference, but apparently no live stream: "At the conclusion of the 2018 IMF Article IV mission to Germany, the mission chief Julie Kozack will hold a press conference at the Bundesbank offices in Berlin to present the missions’ Concluding Statement and answer questions from media.
When: Monday, May 14, 2018 at 1 pm CET.
Where: Deutsche Bundesbank, Hauptverwaltung in Berlin und Brandenburg Leibnizstr. 10, Berlin-Charlottenburg
Participants: Julie Kozack, Assistant Director, European Department
How: Journalists interested in participating should register with Bundesbank e-mail christiane.engellandt-kranen."We'll have more on this. When the IMF held its Middle East press conference at its Spring Meetings on April 20, Inner City Press submitted this question: "On Yemen, what are the IMF's predictions and what are its current actions, for example in ensuring the payment of public servants? Relatedly, what is the impact of the war on Yemen on the Saudi economy? -Matthew Russell Lee, Inner City Press." Spokesperson Wafa Amr read the question, from Matthew Lee, to Jihad Azour, the Director of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia Department, who said (full audio here), "The situation in Yemen has inflicted a big humanitarian toll. The Fund is helping the Yemeni authorities, the Central Bank, in designing and managing the financial framework to distribute salaries... and import goods and medicines. With the government, we try to help them preserve the Central Bank and the ministry of finance. We are in dialogue with global community, providing assessment of the challenges and the best instruments that could help." Afterward, the IMF sent Inner City Press an email that "Yemen is suffering deep humanitarian and economic crisis. Outlook is very uncertain and will be dependent on security developments. Recession in Yemen continued in 2017 and GDP fell by 14 percent. We expect zero growth in 2018, under the assumption that the conflict will end end of the year." It's appreciated, but there was no answer about the impact on the Saudi economy. On May 7, the IMF issued this, on vicious censor Sisi of Egypt: "Following a meeting with Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah El Sisi in Cairo today, Mr. David Lipton, First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), issued the following statement: ;President El Sisi and I discussed Egypt’s economic outlook and progress in Egypt’s reform program supported by the IMF. The reforms have started to reap results, especially with regard to Egypt’s macroeconomic stabilization: growth is at the highest rate since 2008, inflation has rapidly declined, foreign exchange reserves are at record levels, exports are growing and unemployment has declined. We also discussed the outcome of the Inclusive Growth and Job Creation Conference [link to the PR announcing the conference], co-organized by the Egyptian authorities and the IMF in Cairo May 5-6. I was encouraged by the determination, shared by policy makers, the private sector, members of the parliament and civil society. There was consensus that Egypt needs to lock in the gains in macroeconomic stabilization and shift gears towards the implementation of a home-grown structural reform agenda to achieve more inclusive and private sector-led growth. This will help create jobs, which is the best way to reduce poverty and improve living standards. In this context, the conference also benefited from the participation of former senior policymakers from Korea, India and Malaysia who shared their reform experiences. I thanked President El Sisi, Prime Minister Sherif Ismail, Governor of the Central Bank of Egypt Tarek Amer and the Minister of Finance Amr El Garhy for co-hosting the conference. As we continue our partnership, we stand ready to help Egypt achieve a better future for its people.” Watch this site. When the IMF held its biweekly embargoed briefing on March 29, Inner City Press submitted questionsabout South Korea, Myanmar and Jamaica, see below. Spokesman Gerry Rice read out Inner City Press' South Korea question. From the IMF transcript: "on South Korea. This is from Matthew Lee. The U.S. says it's Treasury Department is finalizing an understanding with South Korea to avoid practices that provide an unfair competitive advantage. What does the IMF think of such bilateral forex arrangements? There are other questions on trade, so let me just take that. On the U.S.-Korea discussions on trade, I don't have the details of that. So, you know, I wouldn't speculate on that. What I would say more generally is that we believe bilateral and regional agreements can bring important benefits by building on a strong multilateral trade system that promotes transparency and includes well-enforced trade rules that promote even-handed competition, is what I would say on that one." Rice spent much of the briefing trying to correct "commentary" - that is, coverage - of Madame Lagarde's CFC proposal; he added as the final online question that an IMF team will be in Brazzaville in early April. This comes after the IMF praised another long time family run government in Gabon. He promised very "products and events" for the upcoming Spring meetings. Inner City Press asked: 1) "In the IMF's Myanmar statement it is said that “the direct economic impacts of the humanitarian crisis in Rakhine state have been largely localized.” Can you explain? How local? 2) In Jamaica, the Tourism Enhancement Fund (TEF) says it was following the orders of the IMF when it cut off funding to the Nuh Dutty Up Jamaica Campaign implemented by the Jamaica Environment Trust (JET), leaving its future in doubt. What is the IMF's response?" Watch this site - the IMF has yet to respond on some previous questions. On Cameroon, with the government continuing to cut and/or slow the Internet in the Anglophone parts of the country amid border incursions into Nigeria and "refoulement" of refugees there, what is the IMF's estimate of the costs, and comment on continuing to support and this government and its actions? On March 7 Inner City Press asked an IMF press conference about the Nigerian economy this question: "What does the IMF think the economic impact will be of CITES' inquiry into the irregular export of endangered rosewood to China, and new restrictions imposed on such exports from Nigeria?" We'll have more on this.
When: Monday, May 14, 2018 at 1 pm CET.
Where: Deutsche Bundesbank, Hauptverwaltung in Berlin und Brandenburg Leibnizstr. 10, Berlin-Charlottenburg
Participants: Julie Kozack, Assistant Director, European Department
How: Journalists interested in participating should register with Bundesbank e-mail christiane.engellandt-kranen."We'll have more on this. When the IMF held its Middle East press conference at its Spring Meetings on April 20, Inner City Press submitted this question: "On Yemen, what are the IMF's predictions and what are its current actions, for example in ensuring the payment of public servants? Relatedly, what is the impact of the war on Yemen on the Saudi economy? -Matthew Russell Lee, Inner City Press." Spokesperson Wafa Amr read the question, from Matthew Lee, to Jihad Azour, the Director of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia Department, who said (full audio here), "The situation in Yemen has inflicted a big humanitarian toll. The Fund is helping the Yemeni authorities, the Central Bank, in designing and managing the financial framework to distribute salaries... and import goods and medicines. With the government, we try to help them preserve the Central Bank and the ministry of finance. We are in dialogue with global community, providing assessment of the challenges and the best instruments that could help." Afterward, the IMF sent Inner City Press an email that "Yemen is suffering deep humanitarian and economic crisis. Outlook is very uncertain and will be dependent on security developments. Recession in Yemen continued in 2017 and GDP fell by 14 percent. We expect zero growth in 2018, under the assumption that the conflict will end end of the year." It's appreciated, but there was no answer about the impact on the Saudi economy. On May 7, the IMF issued this, on vicious censor Sisi of Egypt: "Following a meeting with Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah El Sisi in Cairo today, Mr. David Lipton, First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), issued the following statement: ;President El Sisi and I discussed Egypt’s economic outlook and progress in Egypt’s reform program supported by the IMF. The reforms have started to reap results, especially with regard to Egypt’s macroeconomic stabilization: growth is at the highest rate since 2008, inflation has rapidly declined, foreign exchange reserves are at record levels, exports are growing and unemployment has declined. We also discussed the outcome of the Inclusive Growth and Job Creation Conference [link to the PR announcing the conference], co-organized by the Egyptian authorities and the IMF in Cairo May 5-6. I was encouraged by the determination, shared by policy makers, the private sector, members of the parliament and civil society. There was consensus that Egypt needs to lock in the gains in macroeconomic stabilization and shift gears towards the implementation of a home-grown structural reform agenda to achieve more inclusive and private sector-led growth. This will help create jobs, which is the best way to reduce poverty and improve living standards. In this context, the conference also benefited from the participation of former senior policymakers from Korea, India and Malaysia who shared their reform experiences. I thanked President El Sisi, Prime Minister Sherif Ismail, Governor of the Central Bank of Egypt Tarek Amer and the Minister of Finance Amr El Garhy for co-hosting the conference. As we continue our partnership, we stand ready to help Egypt achieve a better future for its people.” Watch this site. When the IMF held its biweekly embargoed briefing on March 29, Inner City Press submitted questionsabout South Korea, Myanmar and Jamaica, see below. Spokesman Gerry Rice read out Inner City Press' South Korea question. From the IMF transcript: "on South Korea. This is from Matthew Lee. The U.S. says it's Treasury Department is finalizing an understanding with South Korea to avoid practices that provide an unfair competitive advantage. What does the IMF think of such bilateral forex arrangements? There are other questions on trade, so let me just take that. On the U.S.-Korea discussions on trade, I don't have the details of that. So, you know, I wouldn't speculate on that. What I would say more generally is that we believe bilateral and regional agreements can bring important benefits by building on a strong multilateral trade system that promotes transparency and includes well-enforced trade rules that promote even-handed competition, is what I would say on that one." Rice spent much of the briefing trying to correct "commentary" - that is, coverage - of Madame Lagarde's CFC proposal; he added as the final online question that an IMF team will be in Brazzaville in early April. This comes after the IMF praised another long time family run government in Gabon. He promised very "products and events" for the upcoming Spring meetings. Inner City Press asked: 1) "In the IMF's Myanmar statement it is said that “the direct economic impacts of the humanitarian crisis in Rakhine state have been largely localized.” Can you explain? How local? 2) In Jamaica, the Tourism Enhancement Fund (TEF) says it was following the orders of the IMF when it cut off funding to the Nuh Dutty Up Jamaica Campaign implemented by the Jamaica Environment Trust (JET), leaving its future in doubt. What is the IMF's response?" Watch this site - the IMF has yet to respond on some previous questions. On Cameroon, with the government continuing to cut and/or slow the Internet in the Anglophone parts of the country amid border incursions into Nigeria and "refoulement" of refugees there, what is the IMF's estimate of the costs, and comment on continuing to support and this government and its actions? On March 7 Inner City Press asked an IMF press conference about the Nigerian economy this question: "What does the IMF think the economic impact will be of CITES' inquiry into the irregular export of endangered rosewood to China, and new restrictions imposed on such exports from Nigeria?" We'll have more on this.
