As UN Council Meets on N. Korea Missile, China With Leverage, Japan in a Box

Byline: Matthew Russell Lee of Inner City Press at UN
www.innercitypress.com/unsc3dprk040509.html

UNITED NATIONS, April 5, updated -- As Japan's requested Security Council meeting on North Korea's missile shot begins in New York, the expectations raised in Tokyo constrain the action and portend disappointment. Before the missile's flight, talk on the issue around the Council centered on whether Japan could obtain new sanctions in a resolution, or might have to accept a non-binding Presidential Statement. After a week of inquiries with Council diplomats, Inner City Press has preliminarily concluded that China is the winner, if there is one, from this missile launch.

China has a rationale to block a new sanctions resolution -- North Korea's claim that it was only a satellite, to which it has a right. China also prefers the Six Party Talks formula, which it can control better than it can the Security Council. (The same might be said of the United States.) So now that the missile has flown, what could convince China not a veto a resolution condemning North Korea?

Diplomats speaking on condition of anonymity tell Inner City Press that China can extract explicit or implicit commitments for allowing even a watered-down resolution to get through. These might include laying off on what little pressure there has been of late on Myanmar for democratization.

Inner City Press at midnight on April 4 reported and uploaded Japan's letter to Council president Claude Heller, and Heller's spokesman's confirmation that the consultations would begin at 3. At 2:30, there was already a buzz outside the Council, and a crush of journalists, a high percentage of which represent Japanese media. Inner City Press is set up and will be posting updates on this site. Stay tuned.

Update of 3:09 p.m. -- as Ambassadors push through the press scrum, some stop for short statements on camera at the stakeout. France's Ripert says they're seeking unanimity. Japan's Takasu said "Thank God" actual physical damage wasn't done. U.S. Ambassador Rice takes no questions, the UK's Karen Pierce rushes straight into the chamber. China is off-stage, holding the cards...

A Western diplomat tells Inner City Press that no resolution is possible today, because they'd have to check with capitals. At most, a non-binding statement, and perhaps not even that.

For more updates, see, www.innercitypress.com/unsc3dprk040509.html