By Matthew Russell Lee
UNITED
NATIONS, January 21 -- The IMF's Middle East and Central Asia
Department Regional Economic Outlook Update was released from embargo on
January 21, just before the WEF in Davos and the day after the Houthis took over the Presidential Palace in Sana'a.
Starting with the numbers, specifically “Fiscal Balances 2014 and
2015,” the IMF lists a 5.4% downturn for Yemen in 2014, and a 5.2%
downturn in 2015. Might the latter number grow worse?
On the financial sector, the IMF report says “Yemen is at high risk
because its banks are highly exposed to government debt against the
backdrop of a weak fiscal position and limited financing options.”
Referring to the demands for fuel subsidy cuts, the IMF report says
“Yemen “is planning to increase non-oil revenue collection, contain the
government wage bill, and continue fuel subsidy reform.” Is that still
the case? How could the IMF know?
On
January 19-20, the IMF's Olivier Blanchard answered Inner City Press'
question about the impact of falling oil prices on Africa by saying
"Nigeria will have to adjust. I do not know at this stage whether they
can adjust on their own or they might need a program from the Fund. If
they did any member is welcome to come at this stage I have no
information about it.”
A Yemen-like program?
To the IMF's
World Economic
Outlook Update
press
conference,
Inner City
Press
had submitted this
question:
“Please
summarize what
the decline in
oil prices may
mean for
countries in
Africa, and
what the IMF
is prepared to
do about those
countries
negatively
impacted.”
As the second
online
question
taken, this
question was
put to
Blanchard, who
responded:
“Most
African
countries are
importers and
so are helped.
Some countries
are not and
the main
example is
Nigeria.
Nigeria will
have to
adjust. I do
not know at
this stage
whether they
can adjust on
their own or
they might
need a program
from the Fund.
If they did
any member is
welcome to
come at this
stage I have
no information
about it.”
Earlier on
January 19,
the UN
Security
Council issued
a Presidential
Statement
about, but not
funding, the
fight against
Boko Haram.
Security
Council
sources
leaving the
meeting told
Inner City
Press that for
funding, those
in the region
-- i.e.
Nigeria --
should be
looked to
first.
But if Nigeria
may even need
to apply for
an IMF
program, is it
reasonable for
the powers in
the UN and it
Permanent Five
members of the
Security
Council to
expect it to
be entire
responsible
for fighting
Boko Haram?
We'll have
more on this.
Footnote:
while
Blanchard's
"main example"
was Nigeria,
what about
Angola? What
about Equatorial
Guinea? To the
north, what
about Libya?
The January 21 IMF report says: “conflicts, terrorism, and related security disruptions continue to be a prevailing concern in the region. Although airstrikes have slowed the advance of the so-called Islamic State (ISIS), conflicts in Iraq and Syria persist, creating significant economic and political spillovers for neighboring countries (especially Jordan and Lebanon). The security situations in Afghanistan, Libya, Pakistan, and Yemen also remain challenging. Conflicts cast a shadow over the economic outlook for the MENAP region, not only because they disrupt economic activity; they also reduce political space for the much-needed reforms and delay the return of confidence to the MENAP region.”
Questions,
questions...
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