By
Matthew Russell Lee
UNITED
NATIONS, July 31 -- In the International Monetary Fund's just release
Lebanon report the word Syria appears no less than 59 times, blamed
for nearly everything. But the report at page 6 acknowledges:
“Lebanon
could not create sufficient jobs even before the Syria crisis.
According to the World Bank, only some 3,800 jobs were generated per
year (one for every six new entrants to the labor market) in 2005–09.
Reflecting insufficient job opportunities, the unemployment rate
stood at 11 percent in 2011, slightly above the MENA average of 10
percent. Like in the MENA region, unemployment was much higher among
the youth -- over one third of labor force participants aged 15 - 24
are unemployed. Around half of the labor force was employed in the
informal sector.”
The
IMF opines, “Without a resolution in Syria, economic performance is
expected to remain weak.” But what kind of resolution?
As
good news, the IMF says
“Lebanon
might become a commodity producer over the next decade, with
petroleum set to be an important source of government revenue. Recent
seismic surveys suggest that Lebanon’s oil and gas resources could
be in excess of 25 trillion cubic feet (tcf). While not particularly
large by international standards, this estimate still points to the
potential for a substantial revenue increase for many years (though
not starting before 2020 at the earliest).”
For
now, on delinquent loans held by Lebanese banks, the IMF “staff
called for an improvement of loan classification and restructuring
rules. The increase in loans under watch and the widespread use of
overdrafts warrant tighter rules guiding the classification of NPLs
and the restructuring of loans, including re-aging of overdrafts and
arrears” (Yesterday Inner City Press reported on Cyprus
non-performing loans and the foreclosure scheme the IMF is demanding,
here.)
Also
on Lebanese banks, the IMF “encouraged progress on the Anti-Money
Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) regime.
A better understanding of the source of deposits and adequate
identification of beneficial owners would allow more effective
monitoring of transactions and strengthening of risk-based
supervision—necessary to enhance the integrity of the financial
sector.”
The
IMF report contains as an annex a “Statement by Mr. Shaalan on
behalf of the Lebanese authorities” -- of whom while there the IMF
met with Prime Minister Salam, Minister of Finance Khalil, Governor
of the Banque du Liban (BdL) Salame -- the IMF met with that says
“Lebanon’s AML/CFT regime is in practice fully compliant with
international standards, and Lebanon’s financial intelligence unit,
the Special Investigation Commission, actively cooperates with its
foreign counterparts.” We'll see. Watch this site.
